We haven’t learned a thing. History will repeat itself. Congratulations Liberals.

Today is New Year’s Day, 2013.  Happy New Year to all!  I’m finding it hard to find anything “happy” about today.

On FoxNews Channel right now, they are talking with John Bolton about Benghazi.  Remember Benghazi?  That’s where our consulate in Libya was attacked and our Ambassador was tortured and murdered, along with his assistant and 2 CIA operatives (both former Navy Seals).   Benghazi.  The failure of Barack Obama to protect our people in a foreign country.  Benghazi.  The cover-up to protect those who are lying about what happened that night when people who wanted to help were ordered to “Stand Down”.  Sooner or later the truth will come out and this administration will pay for its crimes.

The Stock market finished 2012 with a huge Bang.  I don’t get it. There was a fiscal cliff imminent, with no chance of a deal to reduce spending, and the markets are up big. Could someone please tell me why???? As it turns out, this morning I find out there was a deal done overnight in the Senate and sent to the House for a vote. Guess what? Higher taxes and no spending cuts. That’s the bill that was agreed on. Good job liberals. Good job.

Sure, profits are up. But compared to what?? Levels from a year ago?? We just had 350,000 new first-time unemployment claims reported on Thursday and it was hailed as good news. What is good about this?? Just in the last month since the election, there have been @1.4 million jobs lost. How many were added?? Oh, about 120,000. And this is good news.

My head is spinning. Companies have gotten rid of so many employees that their profits could do nothing but go up. The housing market can do nothing but go up- it can’t go any lower. Interest rates are almost ZERO. This is good news?? It’s just the way it is at this point- there’s nothing good about it.

Today is the first day that the new Obamacare taxes will take effect. Make no mistake about it- YOUR TAXES ARE GOING UP. Many people out there are happy that the “rich” are finally going to be singled out and attacked by this administration that so hates successful, hard-working people. I never dreamed that this great country would elect a person who hates those individuals who take the risks and succeed, expand, invest, create jobs, etc. But Barack Hussein Obama hates successful people. To all successful people big O can only say “Hey, you didn’t build that”.

Goodbye America.

We have elected a communist. Every moment of O’s life has been spent hating America and wanting to bring down capitalism and whitey. Obama is the biggest racist to ever live in the white house. And we have 4 more years.

Goodbye America.

Well, I’m back writing this piece now after a couple of hours away. It seems that I repeat myself over and over. But these things I’ve written are important. And if we don’t face them and get back to what made this country great, we will lose it forever. And what we get in exchange will be dreadful. We must learn from history, not ignore it. Only idiots would do that.

So, where does the market go from here?? For 2012, the Nasdaq gained 15.9%, the S & P 500 13.4%, and the Dow 12.9%. The markets are currently still in an uptrend. I’ve got to stay invested because I am not going to try to predict what it will do. I thought it would have crashed by now, but it had a great day Monday, so it is stay the course.

So here’s wishing everyone a Happy New Year! Let’s hope the conservatives can come around and speak the language that all freedom loving people can understand. Where is a Reagan when he is needed??

We need one now.

Custom Trex Deck designed and built         by Bert Carlson.

Written on December 21, 2012

The stock market has been in an uptrend since the market reversed on November 16th. The Nasdaq bottomed at 2810.80 that day, but closed near the top of its trading range. The close at 2853.13 was a gain of 16.19, with volume 24% higher than average. This reversal day set up the watch for a follow-through day to occur sometime between the 4th and 10th day following the reversal. A follow-through day would confirm the markets reversal and uptrend.

A follow-through day, as defined by Investors Business Daily, is a day where the market closes up significantly higher than the day before with higher volume. That follow-through day came on the 23rd of November, the day after Thanksgiving. Because the trading day was 3 hours shorter than normal (closing at 1 pm), total volume was less than the day before Thanksgiving. Therefore, an hour-by-hour examination was necessary to see if trading was more intense, and thus, would have been higher, than Wednesday’s level.

Since the trading activity proved to be more intense than Wednesday’s, the day was confirmed as a follow-through day. And, since the follow-through day, the markets are all up. The S & P 500 is up 5.6%, the Nasdaq is up 6.7%, and the Dow lags with a 5.3% gain. Unfortunately, with the economy being on such shaky ground, there’s not a lot of confidence in this reversal.

The big investors- mutual funds, pension funds, banks and insurance companies, to name a few- are still holding a lot of cash out of this market. There is so much doubt as to where we go from here that there is just not the confidence that one would want to see to be fully invested. With my money invested in the markets, I want to see the big players all in. The big money pushes the markets up or down. When there’s too much cash on the sidelines not being invested, big investors are skittish and ready to sell at any hint of bad news. And I see bad news everywhere with no good news anywhere.

The worst thing going right now is the threat of going over the fiscal cliff. As we know, going over that cliff will result in huge tax increases for all taxpayers, and cuts in government programs. Perhaps the biggest cuts will be to the military, which will severely hamper our ability to fight two wars at the same time. This is unfortunate as the world is becoming more and more unfriendly, and less respectful, to the United States. And it likely leaves untouched all of the programs that need to be revamped due to their cost.

There hasn’t been much talk about what a huge military cut might mean for those in the armed forces who will lose their jobs as a result. Such an influx of new people searching for work will add tremendous pressure to this already fragile economy. Where will the jobs come from for these people leaving the military and defense contractors? The private sector is still cutting roughly 350,000 jobs a week. If we’re not adding jobs, but cutting, more and more pressure will be weighing down this economy.

How will these people survive? Will they all qualify for unemployment benefits? Again, too much pressure on the economy could bring it crashing down. With taxes going up, regardless if there is a budget agreement or not, this could be the double “wammy” that could crash this economy in the first quarter of the new year. This nice little “bull” market we have right now could be very short-lived indeed.

Another very scary aspect of this economy concerns everybody’s retirement funds. Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, last week announced that he was going to continue to spend month after month until we finally spend our way into a growing economy. He said the central bank was going to buy $40 billion worth of mortgages every month, as well as print $45 billion each and every month until the unemployment rate fell as to 6.5%.

This additional money being printed is not going to help the economy because it is just adding more and more debt to the already unsustainable amount we have now. We would be printing money to pay our debt for the first time in our history. Every time money is spent without the economy expanding, the dollar is de-valued. The net result of this is that inflation sets in and everybody’s savings is worth less and less. Debt, and interest on the debt, becomes more and more difficult to handle. Today the interest on our debt is nearly zero. We are paying 40 cents of every dollar in interest now. But what happens when interest rates start going up again? There is no way this economy can support that unless it is growing with full employment, with less government spending.

All this leaves us still watching the markets with hope that it will continue to rise. The Dow, Nasdaq and S & P 500 have all been flirting with their various “support” and “resistance” levels for some time now. The Dow and S & P 500 both closed above their 50-day moving averages on December 7th for the first time since October 18th. The Nasdaq didn’t achieve that until the 11th of December. It had been below its 50-day since October 17th.

The 50-day, or 10-week, moving average is simply an average of the closing prices over the last 50 trading days. If the current price is above the average, then the average will tend to give “support” to the price of the market. Traders often add to their positions when a price retreats back to its moving average, figuring that the moving average will “support” the price and send it higher. If the current price is below the average, then it will tend to be “resistance”, making it tougher for the stock to go higher, and often sending the stock to even lower prices.

So the fact that these markets have closed above the 50-day moving average is significant. Individual investors, as well as the big institutional investors, will continue to watch closely to see if the markets can sustain their strength. Part of this will be maintaining their prices above these moving average levels. Another part of this will be earnings by individual companies and, as we come to the holiday season, sales reports at the end of the year.

One of the bright spots in the confidence building areas are the homebuilders. They have seen month-to-month sales increases recently. Their profits are rising again. One reason is that they have finally unloaded most of their inventory, and cut their costs as low as they can, and still maintain a working company. Over the last few years the homebuilders have cut their workforce to the bare minimum. The employees they have kept have had to assume a bigger workload for no more money. This does seem to finally be paying off. The interest rates, remaining at or near historic lows, have also helped the homebuilders’ bottom line.

Construction has run this country’s economy for years and years. America cannot grow and maintain a healthy employment level without residential construction. Residential construction is a reflection of a growing economy. When homes are being built it means that homes are being sold. Selling homes means that people are making and saving money. It also means that they have jobs that are good jobs that are likely to last. Building homes means that skilled laborers are back at work earning and spending money. This makes the economy grow, further creating wealth for those who are putting in the sweat day after day, without having to print money and de-value the dollar.

The results of the fiscal talks currently going on will have a huge effect on the economy in the new year. Whether this uptrend continues, or gets slammed backwards, will depend on a large part on whether we have a budget agreement. If there is no agreement and we go over the fiscal cliff, the markets are likely to crash a minimum of 20 – 25%, or more. If we come to a budget agreement for the first time in 5 years, then this bull market may continue upwards for the foreseeable future. Certainly an agreement would be great news.

For the time being, investors are skittish. Good news is rare and doesn’t seem to last long. Prudent investors will watch the markets and add to positions slowly, as the market proves it has strength. Losses can be very big very quickly in times like these. One must remember the old saying that “the markets take the stairs up, but take the elevator down.” The best news that his market can hear right now is that there is a Budget agreement for 2013.

Sunset at Clingman’s Dome

The markets ended up very slightly for the week.  The Nasdaq ended up 43.39 for a 1.46% increase.  The S & P 500 gained 7.03, or 0.5%.  And the Dow tacked on 13.37 which was an increase of only 0.1%.  But, they did end up.  And that keeps the uptrend intact.  That’s the good news.

Now the bad news.  None of these averages have managed to close above their 10-week moving averages.  This is proving to be stiff resistance to the Nasdaq and S & P 500.  The Dow hasn’t even thought about challenging this level yet- it’s still trying to stay above its 40-week moving average at about 13,000.

And the craziest thing is who the big winners were for the week.  According to the Investors Business Daily, the biggest winners among the various industry groups were solar energy and alternative energy.  This tells me that investors expect to see much more stimulus spending into Obama’s liberal friends in the “green” energy sector.  This is insane.  I can see investment and startup capital going into these technologies for possible huge payoffs.  But I cannot see investing big into companies that have no viable product.  It’s nuts.

What’s coming up this week?  Let’s see if the markets keep moving up.  Hopefully, they will.  The trend is up so I’ve got to be in this market.

For me, I’ll be traveling to Raleigh, NC for a very uncomfortable exam by my ophthalmologist.  I want to talk to him about my cataract and what kind of possible negative effects can result by replacing it.  I’m down to one eye now, so I am very skeptical about having this surgery.  But, it’s getting harder and harder to see.  I’m just about tired of it enough to get something done.

I know way too much about the retina.  A layperson shouldn’t have to know what I know.

Hallowed Ground- Arlington National Cemetery- April, 2009

The markets finished up yesterday with slightly higher volume to add fuel to the latest rally. The Nasdaq was up 20.25, the S & P 500 6.02, and the Dow 36.71. Even though the volume was slightly higher than Wednesday’s action, it still fell short of average except for the Nasdaq. So this trend may be up, but it’s not the kind of excitable trend that I’d like to see. I’d prefer to see some good news, and all I hear is bad. But it is trending higher.
The fiscal cliff is coming and the administration does not care enough the future of this country to even propose a plan that’s worth considering. His latest plan, offered up by the idiot Obama puppet Tim Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, is a tax increase of $1.6 Trillion, $50 Billion more of stimulus spending (in other words, throwing it away), and a permanent cancellation of the debt ceiling.
Is there someone with a still functioning brain cell that can explain the logic of this????
By the way, don’t forget the massive tax increases that are coming in January as a result of the Bush-era tax cuts ending. Some of the more devastating tax ramifications are dividend tax rates increasing from 15% to 39.6%. That’s a 164% increase on many, many people’s retirement income. Do you know someone who is retired that depends on dividends for their income. Well, their income will be going way down.
The Estate tax will be going up from the present 35% on estates over $5.12 Million to 55% on estates over $1 Million. I’m not sure how to figure what this tax increase is. But, I can give you an example based on a $6 Million estate.
Currently, a $6 Million estate would be taxed at 35% of $880,000, or $308,000. The new rate will tax anything over $1 Million, $5 Million in this example, at 55%, or $2.75 Million (nearly 9 times as much).
And don’t forget that they want to eliminate “loopholes”, which is code for mortgage deduction, home-based business expenses, charity giving, family gifts, etc.
As Rush Limbaughtalked about yesterday, this administration is also working of a couple of other wealth grabbing plans. One is the confiscation of all 401K’s, “crediting” the person’s social security account with their 2008 401k level, and then require them to put in at least $5000 a year into their “401K”. Pure Communism- stealing of one’s personal property. And don’t forget what happens to the money in our social security “accounts”. It gets spent on other things by Congress.
Another wealth grab has been promoted and defended by Communist Columbia University professor Lamont Hill.  It is a “Wealth Tax“. In other words, one will pay each year a percentage of what they already own and have paid taxes on. So, our wealth will be taxed over and over and over again.
This administration is a communist regime. Much needs to be done or there will never be freedom or prosperity again as we have known it in the past.
How sad America is today. I wonder when the day will come when freedom-loving Americans say “Enough!” and take action.

Meanwhile, the Debt Clock keeps ticking away.

My Dad, Lt. Cmdr. Bob Carlson (on left), piloting his helicopter out of Norfolk, VA.

The markets closed on Friday at 1:00 pm.  They were all higher with what was estimated to be higher hourly volume

by the Investors Business Daily.  This would have been what is known as a “follow-through day” because of the higher volume on an up day following a reversal in the markets.

I don’t know that I agree with that assessment.  The Investors Business Daily defines a follow-through day as one that confirms a reversal day in the markets by having an up day with higher volume than the day before.  This follow-through day will come sometime between the 4th and 10th day following the reversal day.

The problem I have is that the reversal day was Friday, November 16th.  The problem lies in the fact that this was a day in which options expired, which always raises the level of trading.  If it wasn’t a true reversal day, the follow-through day is also not a true confirmation day.  We’ll see.

The Nasdaq did have 6 up days before that streak was snapped yesterday.  There wasn’t any great volume action though, so this short rally is very suspect.

The S & P 500 was up 5 straight sessions before their streak stopped yesterday, Monday, with a down day with higher volume- a bad sign if one is to believe that the market has now turned and is heading up.  And the Dow was up only 4 of the last 6 days.  Today is the second down day in a row.  And both days had higher volume than the day before.  Very bad sign.

When the market turns to start up again, I want to see higher volume on up days, and lower volume on down days.  Lower days on higher volume is just not the behavior I want to see in the market.  That kind of action describes big investors selling.  They should be buying if the market is heading up.  Guess we’ll see how this uptrend plays out.

Some good news would help.  Where is it??  There is none.

How’s that “Arab Spring” working out for you?  About as well as the “Hope and Change” thing.  Now “the newly elected leader of Egypt” has grabbed absolute power in order to secure order.  Duh.  This is the behavior of a dictator.  And we put him in power.

Does anyone need any more evidence that “Obama” thing is for the Islamic world and against the Christian world?

I don’t.  Anyway, I’m still waiting for some good news.

Anybody have any??

The Smoky Mountains- October, 2012

The markets have had a couple of up days lately.  Last Friday, the Dow, S & P 400 and NASDAQ were all up on higher volume.  That would be a good thing most of the time.  But, at this moment, with the big declines in the markets lately,  it is just bottom fishing, or picking up “cheap” stocks.

Today’s job numbers won’t help any.  First-time unemployment claims for last week came in at 410,000.  A huge number in itself, but dwarfing the number from two weeks ago.  And to add insult to injury, the number from two weeks ago was revised upward by 12,000 to 451,000!

Obama’s Labor Department has said that the superstorm Sandy has caused these numbers to spike.  Bullshit!  Just another lie from this communist administration.  Storms don’t cause people to file unemployment claims.  Losing your job does.  These guys will lie about everything to blame the problems they cause to be blamed on someone else.

When will this market turn around and head up??  I don’t see any reason for it to.  But, as always, I’ll wait and see what it does and be ready to get back in when it does turn around.

In the meantime, I’m eagerly waiting for the Benghazi investigation to shed light on the administration’s coverup of their dereliction of duty in protecting our embassy in Libya.  Impeachment is in order, as well as a very stiff punishment for the deaths of four Americans.  Think it will happen??  I think it will.

I believe that there are many Democrats who are tired of this communist and want to get to the bottom of this matter.  We should know soon.

Hope it happens soon.